Simulated Digital Shrapnel: Using Mission-Level M&S to Quantify Cyber Survivability
Thursday, May 7, 2026 1:30 PM to 2:00 PM · 30 min. (America/Denver)
Balanced Rock
Briefing Breakout: Simulation
CYBERSIMULATIONS
Information
Modern warfighting environments demand resilient systems capable of surviving threats across cyber, kinetic, electromagnetic spectrum (EMS), and directed energy (DE) threat domains. To address this challenge, mission-level modeling and simulation (M&S) is a key tool for designing and validating cyber survivability solutions in a full-spectrum threat environment. This presentation outlines a framework leveraging the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) to assess and quantify cyber survivability within contested, full-spectrum environments.
Drawing from a quantitative risk assessment methodology, this approach applies probabilistic attack trees and Monte Carlo simulations to measure mission outcomes, such as degraded communications, navigation errors, and false equipment warnings, alongside traditional survivability domains. By integrating Expected Mission Loss (EML) as a key metric, the approach links system-level cyber risks to mission-critical impacts, translating qualitative vulnerabilities into defendable, quantitative assessments. Furthermore, these simulations enable systematic isolation of threat interactions, whether between cyber effects and kinetic engagements or EMS and DE degradations, allowing analysts to identify dominant risks.
The session will emphasize the role of validated M&S tools as a cost-effective and scalable solution for informing design trade studies and mission engineering decisions. When corroborated through empirical data from cyber testing, ranges, and large-force exercises, these simulations align with Department of War mandates for full-spectrum survivability evaluations as defined in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2022. Practical applications, such as integration within unmanned system architectures like the conceptual MQ-99 Berserker, demonstrate the real-world design insights achievable via such frameworks.
By leveraging M&S to bridge across multiple threat domains, mission-level modeling offers a way forward advancing cyber survivability and operational resilience across Air Force and joint missions.
Drawing from a quantitative risk assessment methodology, this approach applies probabilistic attack trees and Monte Carlo simulations to measure mission outcomes, such as degraded communications, navigation errors, and false equipment warnings, alongside traditional survivability domains. By integrating Expected Mission Loss (EML) as a key metric, the approach links system-level cyber risks to mission-critical impacts, translating qualitative vulnerabilities into defendable, quantitative assessments. Furthermore, these simulations enable systematic isolation of threat interactions, whether between cyber effects and kinetic engagements or EMS and DE degradations, allowing analysts to identify dominant risks.
The session will emphasize the role of validated M&S tools as a cost-effective and scalable solution for informing design trade studies and mission engineering decisions. When corroborated through empirical data from cyber testing, ranges, and large-force exercises, these simulations align with Department of War mandates for full-spectrum survivability evaluations as defined in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2022. Practical applications, such as integration within unmanned system architectures like the conceptual MQ-99 Berserker, demonstrate the real-world design insights achievable via such frameworks.
By leveraging M&S to bridge across multiple threat domains, mission-level modeling offers a way forward advancing cyber survivability and operational resilience across Air Force and joint missions.